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Blog Entry

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Posted on: January 1, 2011 10:53 am
Edited on: January 1, 2011 9:54 pm
 
by Jerry Palm

There are still seven undefeated teams in division I-A as we enter 2011, but two of them are considered longshots by most to even make the NCAA tournament.

UCF is intriguing.  They are actually in the top 20 of the RPI and even ahead of Ohio State, but as they enter Conference USA play, that number has likely peaked.  The Knights played an average non-conference schedule that has one sure quality win -- over Florida.  They also beat Miami and South Florida.

Many people dismiss them because they figure that Memphis is still the overwhelming team to beat in the league, but I think they have set themselves up for a possbile at-large bid if they can perform well in the league.

Cincinnati, which is 14-0 and has two Big East wins already, is way down at 69th in the RPI this morning.  That's a stunning number.  I've been tracking RPI since 1993-94 and could not find a 14-0 team that far down.  The last undefeated team on New Year's Day that far down in the rankings was Texas A&M in 2006 (95th at 10-0).

You have to play a pretty wretched schedule to be 69th at 14-0.  The Bearcats played the 10th worst non-conference schedule, and they played most of those games at home.  So far, they have played only one RPI top 100 team (No. 62 Dayton) and just six that rank better than 250th.

When you play a schedule like that, you are basically saying that you intend to make your case for the tournament in conference.  That means not just muddling through, but doing very well.  Cincinnati probably needs at least 12 wins, and even that may not do it for them.  They cannot afford to be anywhere near the bottom of the at-large pool with a non-conference schedule that bad.


Comments

Since: Sep 4, 2006
Posted on: January 6, 2011 3:29 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

UCF will make a deep tourney run. They are a good team, that will drop some down the stretch but I firmly am telling you that the Knights will will be tasting the sugar in the Sweet 16 and advance to the Elite 8. Thats where I think the momentum slows and the talent shows! They will lose to a more physical team in that round of 8.

Marcus Jorden is a beast! Watch them play if you get a chance exciting. I first handedly watched him squeek by my Gators.



Since: Apr 3, 2007
Posted on: January 5, 2011 9:34 am
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

I'll prove you wrong very easily, boston_paulie.  By your own estimation you see the big east getting at least 7 teams in the big dance.  So I'll be generous and say 8 teams make it.  There are 16 teams in the big east.  That means 50% of the big east teams are tournament worthy.  The big ten, on the other hand, only has 11 teams in its conference, and there look to be at least 6 and probably 7 teams from that conference getting in.  So taking the lesser, that would mean that 55% of the big ten teams look to make the tournament.  So while the big east has quite a few teams at the top, it is only because of the number of teams in the league, not the quality of the league overall.  There are still 8 or 9 teams in that league that everyone gets to play who are not good enough for the tournament (as opposed to only 4 or 5 in the big ten).  Nothing special there.

You asked for proof.  Your wish is my command.



Since: Dec 15, 2006
Posted on: January 4, 2011 9:47 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Only time will tell....but let's be HONEST....Cincy is at BEST the 5Th or 6TH best team in the BIG EAST.....and that's being GENEROUS for this post....PITT,SYRACUSE,VILLANOVA,UCONN,ND,GEORGETOWN......OPPS I misspoke.....maybe the Best 7TH or 8TH team......As I said  TIME WILL TELL......With the POWER of the BIG BEAST....I see getting at least 7 @ the big dance ...They dominate the polls for a reason !!!! IT IS THE BEST CONFERENCE IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL......PROVE ME WRONG if you can't agree.



Since: Nov 24, 2006
Posted on: January 4, 2011 5:34 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Syracuse lost to some bad teams like Drexel that year and their non-conference schedule was almost as bad as UC's but not quite, though they did deserve to get into the tournament that year with what they did in Big East play.  If UC beats Xavier and gets 9 conference wins I don't see why they shoulnd't get a bid.



Since: May 4, 2009
Posted on: January 3, 2011 4:11 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Cincinnati goes 8-8 in the Big East and makes it into the tournament?  Are you kidding me?  Syracuse went 10-6 a couple years back and didn't make it, and they didn't play cupcakes all year.  There is no way they would get a nod at 8-8.



Since: Nov 24, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2011 1:49 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

Cincinnati needs 12 conference wins and even then they might not make the tournament? Are you kidding me? Am I reading this wrong? How could you possibly be 12-6 in the Big East and 25-6 or 24-7 overall and not make the tournament.  If they go 8-8 in the Big East I think they get in.



Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2011 12:17 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

bottom line... at this point of the year... we really cannot say how good/bad cinn is... but also the team is undefeated... so why the bashing by the so-called experts for being undefeated... almost like ' how can this be !'...  it is almost the flip side of a highly regarded team losing... but the experts will make positives somewhat... but to make a negative out of winning... and the team is not even ranked is pure bs in my book



Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2011 11:26 am
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

as an example... just doing a qucik overview of one ranking for sos: school, record and sos
Long Beach State 5-8 sos 4
Robert Morris  5-8   sos 15
miami ohio   4-9   sos 7
Delaware State  2-7  sos 5
MVSU(Miss. Valley St  1-12  sos 1

what does this say... that many other highly regarded teams feed off of lesser teams...




Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: January 3, 2011 11:15 am
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

... do i have anything against osu or the b10... absolutely not... the reason I choose osu was due to looking at ranking in general relative to sos that so many slam cinn on... and osu at this time was in the high 200s... and also undefeated... my issue is that at this time of the year sos and even records of your opponents are somewhat if not totally skewed by numerous issues that a team does not have control over... I could just as well used several other teams in the top 25 with sos in the 200 or higher that are ranked but osu like cinn are undefeated.... comprehendo?



Since: Jun 26, 2009
Posted on: January 2, 2011 12:39 pm
 

Undefeated, but are they worthy?

You are not seriously trying to compare OSU and Cincinnati.  And, yes, their play has qualified them to be ranked #2.
Watch Sullinger play a game and then comment.  You want to defend the Bearcats, go ahead, but don't defeat your cause by making comments like that.


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