Blog Entry

Stats to Watch and the First Four

Posted on: January 28, 2011 12:13 pm
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by Jerry Palm

In my 17 years of tracking the RPI and the selection process, there are a few things that I follow closely when trying to figure out which teams could get at-large bids, or at least should get consideration.

One of those is RPI top 100 wins.  No team has received an at-large bid with fewer than three.  It has taken at least four, if a team doesn't have a top 50 RPI win.  When I do mid-season brackets, I'm not necessarily looking for three, but a team isn't likely getting on my board without at least two.

So, that eliminates from consideration -- at least for the moment -- Wichita State , which doesn't have any.  Utah State wouldn't be on my board either if they weren't a conference leader.  I shake my head when I see them in the polls.  I also have UTEP off because it only has one top 100 win.

Another thing I look for is at least a .500 record vs teams in the top 200 of the RPI.  Now, I've been through three NCAA mock selection meetings, and that stat has never come up, but only two teams in the last 17 years received at-large bids without meeting that standard.  This is one that we may see slide some with three more NIT-quality teams in the field going forward.

Teams that are below .500 against the top 200 of the RPI as of this morning include Michigan State , UCLA , Cal , Marquette and Gonzaga .  The Spartans are unique in that they have not played a game against teams ranked 101-200, so they are 7-8 vs the top 100 RPI teams, and also against the top 200.

Finally, you may have noticed that Dayton is right on the fence when it comes to the bracket.  It's possible that the Flyers could be one of the last four teams in.  If that happens, the committee has said that they are eligible to play in the First Four, even though those games are played on Dayton's home floor.  I'm almost never skeptical when it comes to the committee, but I'll believe that one when I see it.

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Comments

Since: Jan 3, 2007
Posted on: February 6, 2011 2:39 pm
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

The SEC does get credit, they have what 4 teams ranked right now? UK is always going to be given credit and start the season ranked at least as high as they should be and usually higher like any big name program. MSU has fallen completely down this year losing their 10th game today and should miss the dance if things don't change in a hurry, but when you make 3 straight final fours you've earned the voters respect and it takes a lot to drop out of the polls, didn't Florida have like 4 or 5 losses when they got the #1 overall seed in their second run? Their were better records but the human factor gave them their dues.  Duke has what 2 losses and which only 2 teams, KU and OSU have less losses and they're the defending champs so of course Duke is ranked 6th and should be. UK and Florida got beat in the OOC games against other top teams and dropped in the polls accordingly(kind of, UK is 11th with like 6 losses right now). Most media members and fans would put conferences in this order or close, BE #1, Big XII and Big Ten #2 & 3 pick your favorite and call them #2 between them, #4 SEC, #5 ACC. Thats just my unbiased opinion, my biased opinion can come up with all sorts of numbers saying the Big XII will be the #1 RPI conference for the second straight year. Like having the best 2 teams in the country for starters......



Since: Oct 10, 2010
Posted on: January 31, 2011 7:41 am
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

You took the words out of my mouth STLOU02, these writers all favor the east teams. Hell Duke could have 6 losses and still be rank in the top 5. If Duke played in the SEC east they would be 3-4 right behind Georgia. It's a shame the SEC doesn't get any credit. Tenn beat PITT @ PITT, Villanova at a neutral site, then they lost 4 games. were 11-4 and out of the top 25. Michigan st at the same time was 11-6 and ranked #13?! Get your heads out of your as**s pollsters look beyond the Appalchian Mountains, they play really good Basketball out there!



Since: Jan 3, 2007
Posted on: January 30, 2011 10:39 pm
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

Big East is full of good teams and the ACC is as down as they've been in 25 years. The two richest conferences in tradition and success are these 2 conferences.



Since: Dec 6, 2008
Posted on: January 30, 2011 11:58 am
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

Dang STLOU02...harsh but I agree.  On the other hand, IIRC the Big East and ACC have combined for 8 of the last 11 titles with Florida winning two and Kansas one.  The ACC is hard to peg.  Duke is clearly not the team it was with Irving.  But with them stuggling some of late, is the rest of the conference better than thought, or is Duke worse.  Ultimately, the NCAA tourney gives the best answers IMHO.



Since: Sep 22, 2007
Posted on: January 30, 2011 7:13 am
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

YOU GUYS MUST HAVE ACC AND BIG EAST TATOOED ON YOUR BRAIN  YEAR AFTER YEAR YOU RATE THESE TWO CONFRENCES ABOVE EVERYONE ELSE , YOU STICK THE TARHEELS IN THE PRESEASON TOP TEN AND THEY'RE PROBABLY A TOP 30 TEAM. SYRACUSE WINS A COUPLE OF GAME AND YOU QUICKLY PUT THEM IN THE TOP TEN AND THEY MAYBE BELONG IN THE 20'S . IT BREAKS YOUR HEART TO HAVE TO RANK AN SEC TEAM IN BASKETBALL . BUT THATS ALRIGHT BECAUSE SEC FOOTBALL  KICKS YOUR ASSES SO BAD YOUR FORCED TO GIVE THEM A HIGH RANKING




Since: Apr 3, 2007
Posted on: January 28, 2011 4:02 pm
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

3rd longest winning streak doesn't mean much without a single win against an RPI top 100 team.  And THAT was the point of his comment.  I shake my head at your comment.



Since: Feb 18, 2008
Posted on: January 28, 2011 1:26 pm
 

Stats to Watch and the First Four

go ahead and shake your head at utah state, 3rd longest current winning streak in the nation apparently means nothing i guess. stupid blog, not really worth reading.


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